A profitable, truly national rail passenger system must begin with development of the market potential of the various segments of the existing network and expansion of that network through the addition of routes that will contribute to overall system performance. By applying various models of intercity movement and examining existing travel patterns of rail, bus, airline, and automobile, it is possible to predict the number of potential rail travelers along a given route segment. Using this ratio of potential daily passengers per mile (PM/RM) developed in Amtrak 90, a target system for 1990 was determined (Figure 5). This approach tailors passenger train service to market.
Because urban centers are the major traffic generators, considerable attention has been given to the size and spacing of cities in constructing the target system. Figures 6 and 7 rank the various network routes and segments according to potential traffic in target year 1990. Four categories are identified:
- low potential, 400-1,000 PM/RM;
- moderate potential, 1,000-2,500 PM/RM;
- high potential, 2,500-5,000 PM/RM; and
- very high potential, greater than 5,000 PM/RM.
Even the lowest is expected to recover direct operating costs per train mile and to contribute to fully allocated costs. While current congressionally mandated criteria require a minimum of 150 passenger miles per train mile, the lowest performance level proposed here (assuming one train per day in each direction) would be 200 passenger miles per train mile.
Figure 6 breaks down the present Amtrak network according to traffic potential. Planning of service increases on the existing system is largely predicated upon this listing. The Northeast Corridor between Boston and Washington and its New Haven-Springfield and Philadelphia- Harrisburg appendages are not included because they are the only portions of the present system that attain or approach service levels that should allow maximum market penetration.
Segments that should be added to the existing system to meet the goal of a nationwide network that will be cost-effective and provide the traveler with the largest possible choice of destinations are classified in Figure 7. Addition of these segments will produce some changes in the classification of the existing system as identified in Figure 6. For example the addition of the Kansas City-Denver and Denver- Albuquerque-El Paso routes would raise the potential of the Kansas City-La Junta and Trinidad-Albuquerque portions of the present Kansas City-Los Angeles route from "low" to "moderate."
The planned 1990 network (Figure 5) is the sum of the present system (Figure 6) and proposed new routes and segments (Figure 7). Selection of the exact trackage to be used is based upon location of intermediate towns and cities, conditions of track with reference to speed, signaling, and capacity, and volume of freight train operations. Some shifting of present routes to serve additional traffic generating points is included in the final 1990 system. For example, the present Chicago-Omaha segment would be rerouted to an upgraded and predominantly passenger service line over the former Rock Island track. Approximately 800,000 inhabitants would be added to the potential market along this route by serving the Des Moines and Quad Cities metropolitan areas. A similar shift between Chicago and Milwaukee from Milwaukee Railroad to Northwestern System track would permit direct service to the intermediate urban areas of Kenosha and Racine. Extensive changes in the Texas Triangle would bring Waco and Bryan-College Station onto the network as well as reduce travel times between end points on the routes.
Some reroutings will require track rehabilitation and upgrading, track restoration (Indianapolis-Dayton), and even new track in the Texas Triangle (Waco-Bremond). Less than 3 percent of the designated 1990 network would require extensive upgrading or new construction. These segments would be predominantly or exclusively for passenger train operations and ownership and operational control of them would pass directly to Amtrak.